Bitter or Better? The Rise and Future of Coffee
At the end of January, the Robert Mondavi Institute hosted Coffee Unfiltered: Thinking Outside the Cup, where coffee industry experts spoke to the coffee-curious about coffee’s origins, history and perception over the decades, and offered their predictions for the future. While pondering what could be next for coffee, what was clear above all was the deep connection coffee enthusiasts have with this beloved beverage, not only as a drink, but as a culture.
Legends of the Industry
Jerry Baldwin has given decades of his life’s work to the coffee industry. From co-founding and owning Starbucks Coffee to serving as president and chairman of Peet’s Coffee, Baldwin is largely responsible for much of what the current world perceives a chain coffee shop to be. As the director of the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) of America, a non-profit trade organization for the specialty coffee industry, Baldwin founded the Technical Standards Committee to help ensure a uniform standard for specialty coffee.
Peter Giuliano is the SCA’s current chief research officer, giving back to the coffee industry through market research and keeping his eye on the latest trends and predictions. From 2000 to 2012, Giuliano served as Counter Culture Coffee’s director of coffee, where he pioneered direct trade coffee, in which the beans are bought directly from farmers to emphasize transparency and the relationship between farmers and sellers.
Russ Kramer is the president of La Minita Coffee, the green-trading division of Distant Lands Trading Co., where he focuses on the quality, sustainability, and ethical sourcing of coffee. He has also served on the SCA Environmental Committee and the Dunkin’ Donuts Coffee Advisory Board, and frequently speaks at SCA panels and events. Although the “Frappuccino” has now been popularized by Starbucks, Kramer was responsible for its research and development and commercialization when he worked at the Coffee Connection in Boston, MA.
Panelist Eliana Cossio is vice president of research and development at Westrock Coffee Company and serves on the Scientific Leadership Committee of the National Coffee Association. She was unable to attend due to travel complications, but she shared her experience with the sensory, quality, commercialization, and business aspects of the coffee industry via a prerecorded video.
The moderator was Bill Ristenpart, the founder of the UC Davis Coffee Center and a professor of chemical engineering. The Coffee Center was created to address challenges in the coffee industry through coffee science, education, and research. Consisting of an undergraduate coffee lab for students to perform bench-top roasting and brewing in coffee lab electives, sensory booths to perform sensory studies on different coffee varieties, an espresso laboratory, a pilot roastery, a coffee innovation hub, and more, the Coffee Center is the place to go for anyone looking to enhance their coffee IQ.
The Four Waves of Coffee
Peter Giuliano kicked off the learning experience with a presentation on the social history of coffee, summarizing more than 500 years’ worth of information in a succinct six minutes. From its initial evolution in Ethiopia, where it was consumed in a traditional ceremony as community members gathered to engage and exchange stories and news, to its spread to Yemen, where the ritual became more publicized, to the Ottoman Empire, where Europeans got a hold of it, what followed coffee wherever it went was its use as a locus of social interaction. Not until it reached the United States was it seen more for its function, having played an important role in the Industrial Revolution and westward expansion. In the U.S. in the 1940s, coffee producers tried to make coffee cheaper, reducing its quality exponentially. All of this encapsulates what Giuliano referred to as the “First Wave” of coffee.
The Second Wave (60s-80s) is characterized by the specialty coffee movement, which was borne of a desire to restore coffee to premium quality, and companies such as Starbucks, Peets, Pannikin, Coffee Connection, PJ’s, and Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf were created as a result.
The Third Wave, which occurred around the 1990s, showed young people (now millennials) diving into specialty coffee. Specialty coffee refers to the highest grade of coffee available in the supply chain, with an emphasis on sourcing coffee from a single origin through equitable, sustainable practices and on forming relationships between growers and sellers. Much of the remaining conversation revolved around the question of what the Fourth Wave would be. Giuliano suggested it could be a new generation of coffee producers, using their diverse backgrounds to set new standards for the specialty coffee industry.
The Fourth Wave may also include the already prevalent ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee, typically sold in cans or bottles. In her recording, Eliana Cossio shared thoughts on current coffee trends, including the shift from hot to cold coffee. In a post-pandemic world, many look for nothing more than convenience, which is more easily translated to cold coffee as it is simpler to package as an RTD product. Companies have also started looking into functional coffees that may add protein, collagen, or energy. She suggests that the drink’s customizable nature may drive coffee and beverage culture in the coming years, adding more aspects to the Fourth Wave.
The Panel
Throughout the panel, the stances and attitudes the three experts had towards coffee became clear.
Jerry Baldwin is above all a businessman who loves coffee. His knowledge of the coffee industry is evident from his experience of both founding Starbucks and then leading Peet’s. When asked about the prospects for ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee over the next five years, Baldwin took a technical approach, noting that more research is needed to develop shelf-stable RTD coffee with lower sugar content. He also mentioned how very few coffee beans are now sold in coffee shops, whereas before, when Starbucks first opened, coffee beans were the only product available - drinks weren’t sold until much later. Because Baldwin has seen coffee trends come and go, not just in the product but in the trade, business, and commercialization, his insight draws on what has brought success in the past, and how he will likely continue his work for years to come.
Russ Kramer’s focus is on sustainable and ethical coffee production through his ownership of La Minita, a farm that has grown and milled coffee in Costa Rica since 1968. His focus on making sure farmers and producers are well-supported is clear. Kramer emphasized the importance of researching who makes your coffee and of going to independent coffee shops rather than chain stores to get educated about your drink. The panel highlighted Kramer’s fervent belief that after the trends in iced coffee, RTD coffee, supplemented coffee, and flavored coffee have died out, interest will return to ensuring the high quality of a plain cup of hot, black coffee.
Peter Giuliano, who became an industry expert after the specialty coffee movement, seemed to have the most evolving views of the three, often reiterating his love of iced coffee and his belief that the trends will continue to diversify rather than regress to the original cup of black coffee. Giuliano posited that by 2035, more Americans will drink cold coffee than hot, as was the trend with tea, liquor and wine.
Let it Steep
Considering how my own perception of coffee has always revolved around the need for caffeine, hearing people explain how much they truly care about coffee as a culture, a feeling, and an experience was enlightening, to say the least. While the three experts seemed to have different perspectives on the product, hailing from different coffee generations and with different industry experiences, their passion for it was abundantly clear, and their conversation may teach some to take a moment to fully embrace the origins and effort that go into a morning cup of coffee.